Ferrari and Land Rover Show What Current BEVs Will Never Achieve

This is a subject I have written about quite often, but people still insist that battery packs are the only solution that is available (despite hydrogen and fuel cells). They also are sure they will last as long as the cars they power (despite all the evidence that this will not be the case). It is not that difficult to visualize, but we're dealing with faith matters and the belief that current lithium-ion cells are our Lord and Savior from climate change. They're not, at least not the way we are using them.

First, all batteries have a relatively short lifespan. Either by use or by age, they will degrade in a way that is not reversible. When that happens, they need to be replaced. We experience that in several appliances and equipment, such as clocks, remote controls, toys, etc. Laptops and smartphones do not count. Not anymore. Apart from Framework and Human Mobile Devices (HMD) devices, they die when their batteries kick the bucket. BEV makers want you to believe your ride will be the same way. Some may even give you the option to buy a new battery pack, but that's only because they still make the same models. If new ones ever replace the ones for sale, forget about new battery packs.

Second, battery packs are located underneath the vehicles, which leaves them particularly vulnerable to damage. A Tesla Model 3 owner called Donald Bone drove over some debris in 2021 and faced a broken coolant port. The BEV maker told him he would have to replace the entire battery pack. He managed to repair that for $700. Places with endemic potholes and bad tarmac where BEVs are starting to be sold are also showing how concerning the situation is. A BMW iX Xdrive50 Sport owner in Brazil hit a speed bumper and received a R$ 908,621 ($160,042, at the current exchange rate) estimate to repair his car, which cost him R$ 889,950 ($156,753). The lower the ground clearance, the worse the problem should be. Higher BEV sales should also make it more evident.

Finally, the most expensive component in a BEV is its battery pack. If it fails or breaks, replacing it will not be worth it, as the BMW iX case in Brazil shows. That is especially true when these electric cars depreciate as quickly as they currently have. Kyle Conner bought his Tesla Model S Plaid for $140,940. Two years later, the youtuber shared on social media that the resale value for his car was $46,400. At this pace, the battery pack will soon cost more than the entire used BEV. The iX didn't even have to wait that long.

The Series Land Rovers last for generations because they have aluminum bodies and robust engines. When they broke down, it was still worth fixing them. As for Ferrari, they were always valuable cars. Some used ones are now worth real fortunes, which also turned them into good investments. Which BEV, if any, shares the same characteristics? In 20 or 30 years, which ones will still have a functioning original battery pack? I don't have a crystal ball, but I can answer with absolute certainty: not a single one. CATL said its most robust component may last up to 15 years, and it is the world's largest lithium-ion cell manufacturer. Either these components will become recycling material or will be well below the minimum 70% capacity they need to retain for automotive use.

When battery packs cease to be such a burden, BEVs may have a better shot at longevity. That can be accomplished through a universal standard for these components, either for battery swapping or replacements. New chemistries may also help, but the truth is that nobody has ever invented a battery that can last for decades. Those who insist the current technology is fine will probably keep buying brand-new BEVs and ditching them after three or even fewer years. They will have to hope they are persuasive enough to convince everybody else that their electric leftovers are worth buying. For those who believe their arguments, I wish them luck. They'll need it, especially with BEVs that have out-of-warranty battery packs.