Photo: Tesla
Tesla reported the Q3 2024 production and delivery numbers, which roughly aligned with Wall Street expectations. Quarterly deliveries are up 6% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter, at 462,890 vehicles. However, investors are not satisfied, as the numbers show that Tesla's deliveries will not grow in 2024.
Tesla has seen a lot of negative news throughout 2024, starting with the disappointing deliveries in the first quarter. For the first time in history, the numbers showed declining sales, a trend that continued in the second quarter. Back then, Tesla explained that the lower delivery numbers were a consequence of a slower-than-expected ramp-up for the refreshed Model 3 production.
Before Tesla released the official Q3 2024 numbers, Wall Street analysts were expecting between 462K (average) and 463.5K (median) deliveries. These numbers were enough for a slight growth in the quarter, ending the negative trend from the previous two quarters.
Tesla's third-quarter delivery numbers almost met analyst expectations, with 462,890 vehicles, just 600 units shy of the median consensus. This confirms that Tesla put an end to the downward trend, having delivered 435K units in Q3 2023 and 444K units in Q2 2024. This represents a growth of 6% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter. However, this puts more pressure on the Q4 results if Tesla still wants to beat estimations of 1.8 million vehicles delivered in 2024.
Year-to-date, Tesla has delivered a total of 1.294 million vehicles, meaning it should deliver more than 506K units in the next three months if it wants to beat expectations. Tesla stopped offering production and delivery guidance, but it warned in January that 2024 numbers would not be as good as in 2023, as it's "between two major growth phases."
Tesla also announced that it produced 469,796 vehicles in the third quarter, which means that it added about 7,000 units to its inventory. This compares to 430K units produced in Q3 2023 and 411K in Q2 2024.
One thing that stands out in Tesla's Q3 2024 report is the low "Other Models" numbers. This should combine Model S/Model X and the Cybertruck production and delivery numbers. However, at 26K units produced and 23K units delivered, it doesn't look like the Cybertruck production ramps up as expected. This is a modest 1.4K increase over the last quarter, which means the Cybertruck might cannibalize Model S and Model X sales.
Although Tesla reported a modest increase, the EV market leader faces increased competition at home and abroad. This is especially visible in China, where BYD, Geely, and highly competitive startups are already threatening Tesla's domination. In the US, Ford and GM are accelerating their EV programs, with GM reporting a 60% increase in EV sales in Q3 2024. However, both Ford and GM are far behind Tesla in EV manufacturing and sales, with GM reporting just 32K EVs sold in the third quarter.
Before Tesla released the official Q3 2024 numbers, Wall Street analysts were expecting between 462K (average) and 463.5K (median) deliveries. These numbers were enough for a slight growth in the quarter, ending the negative trend from the previous two quarters.
Tesla's third-quarter delivery numbers almost met analyst expectations, with 462,890 vehicles, just 600 units shy of the median consensus. This confirms that Tesla put an end to the downward trend, having delivered 435K units in Q3 2023 and 444K units in Q2 2024. This represents a growth of 6% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter. However, this puts more pressure on the Q4 results if Tesla still wants to beat estimations of 1.8 million vehicles delivered in 2024.
Year-to-date, Tesla has delivered a total of 1.294 million vehicles, meaning it should deliver more than 506K units in the next three months if it wants to beat expectations. Tesla stopped offering production and delivery guidance, but it warned in January that 2024 numbers would not be as good as in 2023, as it's "between two major growth phases."
Tesla also announced that it produced 469,796 vehicles in the third quarter, which means that it added about 7,000 units to its inventory. This compares to 430K units produced in Q3 2023 and 411K in Q2 2024.
One thing that stands out in Tesla's Q3 2024 report is the low "Other Models" numbers. This should combine Model S/Model X and the Cybertruck production and delivery numbers. However, at 26K units produced and 23K units delivered, it doesn't look like the Cybertruck production ramps up as expected. This is a modest 1.4K increase over the last quarter, which means the Cybertruck might cannibalize Model S and Model X sales.
Although Tesla reported a modest increase, the EV market leader faces increased competition at home and abroad. This is especially visible in China, where BYD, Geely, and highly competitive startups are already threatening Tesla's domination. In the US, Ford and GM are accelerating their EV programs, with GM reporting a 60% increase in EV sales in Q3 2024. However, both Ford and GM are far behind Tesla in EV manufacturing and sales, with GM reporting just 32K EVs sold in the third quarter.
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